NBA Draft Preview

By Darryl Howerton #21

During this decade of the 2010s, we have annually produced draft-day cheat sheets for our readers to contrast with actual picks made by NBA general managers.

Some years we’ve topped the NBA GMs, like in 2011 and 2012 when we rated Kawhi Leonard third and Draymond Green 13th, only to see both fall outside the lottery when the real-life general managers did not select them until pick Nos. 15 and 35.

And some years we’ve missed the boat, like in 2014 and 2016 when we rated Doug McDermott and Ante Zizic as our No. 1 picks, while actual No. 1 selections Andrew Wiggins and Ben Simmons made us look wrong in a short matter of time (though I stubbornly still believe in the Cavs’ 20-year-old center Zizic).

Now throw in the 2013, 2015 and 2017 drafts, and we have before us a seven-year—going on eight-year—history of draft-day cheat sheets to compare and contrast with the League’s actual picks.

That is why, in the spirit of transparency, we make annual accountability reports where we use player win shares to determine, Who made the better pick?

Our NBAge cheat sheet or the actual NBA GMs?

In retrospect, we have not done half-bad when comparing the scorecards of the previous seven drafts.

In fact, we actually have outperformed NBA general managers during the lottery rounds (+297.2 win shares in pick Nos. 1 through 14), though we did lose ground to GMs with our mid-to-late first-round (-97.4 win shares in pick Nos. 15 through 30) and second-round recommendations (-107.5 win shares in pick Nos. 31 through 60).

All in all, to date, we now are up +92.3 win shares in the 2011-through-2017 NBA Drafts.

NBAge Cheat Sheets vs. NBA GMs: 2011-2017

Draft Picks W-L-T Win Shares
#1-#14 picks 42-43-13 +297.2
#15-#30 picks 46-53-13 -97.4
#31-#60 picks 65-78-67 -107.5
OVERALL 153-174-93 +92.3

It is with this background in mind that we now tackle the 2018 NBA Draft, using the same philosophies we have used in our ever-evoving NBAge program.

With our NBAge prospect-rating system, we use college-to-NBA and international-to-NBA player metric tools that predict the SUPERGLOOO rating of each player by age 23 (SUPERGLOOO combines Player Efficiency Rating with On and On-Off plus-minus stats) and percentage likelihood they will reach that target. In addition to the prospect-to-pro metrics, we also use make peer comparisons based on each player’s birth year.

By weighing a third of our system into metrics, a third into peer comps and a third into our own subjective scouting report, we come up with our NBAge rating system that comes with the necessary checks and balances that hopefully separates the greats from the lifers and the role players from the third-stringers.

By also comparing our metrics on a year-by-year basis, we also can surmise how strong each draft ranks historically, which brings us to this potentially great draft that is now at hand.

Time will tell if the 2018 NBA Draft ranks up there with the 1984, 2003 and 2011 drafts when it comes to All-Star and future Hall-of-Fame talent, but so far the signs of greatness appear to be quite evident.

We certainly love 2018’s chances to rank amongst the all-time great drafts with five standout big prospects and perhaps another five standouts at other positions all possessing the potential to match up with any draft in either 20thor 21stCentury.

When we look back at every draft in just this decade alone—and use our NBAge metric-evaluation tools in doing so—we see at least five of the decade’s top 15 prospects when reviewing our 8th annual NBAge Cheat Sheet.

That is unheard of.

On top of that fact, consider how deep this year’s draft really is, with record numbers of early entrants gracing us with their presence.

When you take it all in, this 2018 NBA Draft is really something to behold.

 

Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images

1. Luka Doncic

Wing Guard, 6-6, 218

Real Madrid (Euroleague, ACB)

23yoProjection: 100% @ 24; 95% @ 23*

NBAge: 1999 #1 (02.28.99)

In my two-and-a-half decades as an NBA Draft evaluator, there are only five men that I have proclaimed “a guaranteed Hall of Famer” before the draft. Those five are Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Anthony Davis…and now Luka Doncic.

He is as close to The Next LeBron that we have seen in the past 15 years. In the past 365 days, he has had the greatest season of any international prospect by leading his teams to championships in EuroLeague, Liga ACB and EuroBasket, winning virtually every overseas MVP award along the way. His metrics measure up with Davis and Karl-Anthony Towns as the best of the decade and his NBA-ready game against top-flight competition is sure to translate for the Slovenian who made basketball history as a 19-year-old leader for famed Real Madrid.

His stop-on-a-dime halfcourt game is already as legendary as his full-court transition game. Once he picks up steam at the start of the 2018-19 season, there may be no stopping Luka as he becomes the surefire pick to one day be labeled the closest thing to the NBA’s next LeBron.


Michelle Farsi/NBAE via Getty Images

2. Wendell Carter

Big, 6-10, 259

Duke (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 77% @ 23

NBAge: 1999 #2 (04.16.99)

Carter is the best teammate in the draft, with the type of selfless attitude—and modern all-around bigs game—that makes him a plus-minus king for years to come. He can pick-and-pop, post-and-pass, spread the offense and lead a defense as well as any center in this draft. Carter should be a perennial All-Star for years to come and he is as big a winner as you’ll find from the college ranks these days.

He is a special player in that he not only does all the little things that show what a savvy player he is, the Duke product is also capable of delivering big things too—as in points, rebounds and blocks. Moreso than any big in this draft, Carter’s game is designed for today’s new era of basketball. He combines the best elements of Al Horford and Paul Millsap, all wrapped in one.

Though he is young, Carter should be able to step in and play right away for any team that lands the unsung hero.


Steve Freeman/NBAE via Getty Images

3. Marvin Bagley III

Big, 6-11, 234

Duke (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 78% @ 24

NBAge: 1999 #3 (03.14.99)

Though he has the dimensions of a big, Bagley also can impersonate a small forward, believe it or not, with his lithely, lean body. His desire to be great makes Bagley the early favorite for first rook taken in your fantasy basketball draft.

If he teams with the right point guard (Mike Conley?), Marvelous Marvin’s offense could take off like a young Amar’e Stoudemire’s game did when he first teamed with Steve Nash 13 years ago.

Bagley is explosive, quick and can fill up a stat sheet. He still has to learn the team game, but the teen will have no problem getting his own shot right away at the next level. Bagley already is an incredible finisher with a pro game that projects to be one of the top six this decade by our NBA-conversion metrics, right alongside fellow Dukies Kyrie Irving and Carter, and just behind fellow greats Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns and Doncic.


Steve Freeman/NBAE via Getty Images

4. Deandre Ayton

Big, 7-1, 250

Arizona (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 58% @ 23

NBAge: 1998 #2 (07.23.98)

The Suns will be picking Ayton No. 1 because they believe in his all-around talents, size and strength. The fact that he ranks fourth on our list lets you know how talented this draft really is, especially since our NBAge metrics would rank him first in every draft this decade besides 2011 (Kyrie Irving), 2012 (Anthony Davis) and 2015 (Karl-Anthony Towns).

In his favor, Ayton combines strength with finesse better than any big in this draft, with an explosiveness and power game that is unmatched by his peers. He has a soft touch deep like LaMarcus Aldridge, can finish at the rim like Joel Embiid, but still needs some work on that in-between paint game to truly dominate at the next level.

That said, Ayton is a strong rebounder and likely can garner his own offensive boards from missed paints shots in the meantime. Defensively, the soon-to-be 20-year-old has skills but still has much to learn as he becomes a full-time NBA center (he played power forward in college).


Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images

5. Jaren Jackson Jr.

Big, 6-11, 242

Michigan State (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 55% @ 22

NBAge: 1999 #4 (09.15.99)

There are many big men in this draft with the talent to become All-League defenders, but Jackson is the only big who has actually played like an All-Defensive center in his short time in the NCAA. He can guard any position, which makes him the best rookie defender in this new, switch-everything League.

Like his dad, Jaren Jackson of the 1999 NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs, Jackson Jr. can space the floor, which makes him surprisingly valuable on the offensive end. He made 60 percent of his two-point attempts and 39 percent of his 2.7 three-point attempts per game at the college level.

Indeed, there are not too many of his 3-and-D types at the 5 spot in the NBA game today. Jackson’s only weakness is a penchant to get in foul trouble (5.9 fouls per 40 minutes), but at least he makes opponents pay on the other end for fouling him, making 80 percent of his free throws at Michigan State.


Steve Freeman/NBAE via Getty Images

6. Zhaire Smith

Guard, 6-5, 195

Texas Tech (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 69% @ 21

NBAge: 1999 #5 (06.04.99)

Smith has always flown under-the-radar, which explains his work ethic to make himself become a possible lotto pick. Mind you, this feat comes after making nobody’s top 100 recruiting list as a graduating high school senior a year ago. He literally came out of nowhere to lead Texas Tech to an Elite Eight finish this season at the 2018 NCAA Tournament. Once ensconced in the lineup, Smith firmly established himself as one of the five best players in his 1999 birth class. He also was instrumental in Texas Tech becoming a top 10 defensive team.


 

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7. Dzanan Musa

Wing, 6-6, 195

Cedevita (Eurocup, Liga ABA)

23yoProjection: 85% @ 20

NBAge: 1999 #6 (05.08.99)

Musa will have no trouble implementing his deep-range shooting game to the NBA once he finds a home in the League.

Unlike collegians in the draft, Musa has already been putting up 25-footers on the regular in Liga ABA and Eurocup. And right when you think you’ve chased him off the three-point line Musa has the art of the blow-by, making opponents pay for keying on him, one way or another.

He is an excellent team player who relishes his relationships with his teammates. A 19-year-old who is mature beyond his years, Musa is the type who would embrace a sixth-man role on any team, and very well could come away with an award or two at that very position in years to come.


Michelle Farsi/NBAE via Getty Images

8. Trae Young

Guard, 6-2, 180

Oklahoma (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 59% @ 20

NBAge: 1998 #4 (09.19.98)

Young is as close to Stephen Curry as you will find in the college ranks. He is a young man with unlimited range, while also possessing playmaking gifts that perhaps compare better to Steve Nash or Mark Price.

Young is the second-best offensive catalyst in the draft, only trailing Doncic. Though his defensive deficiencies and lack of size will detract from his overall game, his floor-spacing and teammate-enhancing skills make him a more valuable asset for any NBA team, even if he has to come off the bench for a couple years in the beginning.

Perhaps Young’s most impressive collegiate stat was how he averaged 10.3 three-point attempts per game, 9.1 two-point attempts, 8.6 free throw attempts and 8.7 assists per game. How do you stop that?


Steve Freeman/NBAE via Getty Images

9. Mo Bamba

Big, 6-11, 225

Texas (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 53% @ 19

NBAge: 1998 #5 (05.12.98)

Imagine the Jordan Brand logo meeting a 7-foot version of Plastic Man and you have a good idea how the mythical Bamba stands out when imagination meets reality.

Coaches dream about getting a prospect like Mo, who has the 7-10 wingspan to revolutionize the defensive game. That said, Bamba has yet to show that prowess at the amateur level, so let’s just say he is still a work-in-progress on the defensive end of the court.

If the right organization—and right head coach—lands him (Dallas? New York?), Bamba may be able to deliver on that upside.


Michelle Farsi/NBAE via Getty Images

10. Michael Porter Jr.

Wing, 6-10, 215

Missouri (NCAA)

23yoProjection: n/a

NBAge: 1998 #8 (06.29.98)

A back injury essentially sidelined Porter for more than 90 percent of the collegiate season, but the scoring wing should remain a top 10 pick after establishing himself as his class’ top performer entering the 2017-18 season (some even thought Porter would’ve been a top 3 pick if high school prospects were eligible).

Though he has been M.I.A. for a year, NBA scouts well remember the teenager who was a great talent with a great handle and a great shot. Porter once reminded NBA GMs of a young Rudy Gay or Jayson Tatum when he was younger, healthy and filling buckets.

If Porter becomes that type of player again, we’ll regret ranking him so low, but this is a talented draft, so there remain plenty of options at hand.


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11. Collin Sexton

Guard, 6-3, 190

Alabama (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 55% @ 18

NBAge: 1999 #7 (01.04.99)

It may take a few years, but Sexton could become a good starter at the NBA level, mainly because he already relishes the physical contact aspects of the sport.

In time, once he pays his rookie dues, Sexton should become a good foul-drawer and rim finisher because of his fearlessness in attacking the rim.

At Alabama, Sexton averaged 19 points in 29 minutes per game, while getting to the line 7.6 per game in his scoring point guard role (he made 78 percent of his free throws).

Some may critique that Sexton is not a prototypical point guard, but who is nowadays?


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12. Mikal Bridges

Wing, 6-7, 210

Villanova (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 72% @ 18; 77% @ 16*

NBAge: 1996 #11 (08.30.96)

Bridges may be the most ready-made pro out there, a certainty to make the All-Rookie team, no matter which team he plays for.

The two-time NCAA champ at Villanova has a 3-and-D game that works at any of the wing or stretch positions, while his offensive versatility best shows up in his shooting efficiency, whether it be from three-point (44 percent), two-point (59 percent) or free-throw range (85 percent).

Bridges is likely to average 30 minutes per game as a 22-year-old NBA rookie and should be a fine complementary piece, just as he fit in at Villanova, averaging 17 points and 5 rebounds per game.


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13. Jalen Brunson

Guard, 6-3, 190

Villanova (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 84% @ 17

NBAge: 1996 #12 (08.31.96)

Brunson is as qualified a leader as any vet in this class, possessing both a class and demeanor that demands instant respect from his teammates.

The lefty quarterback is a pro’s pro who brings work ethic and consistency to any organization he blesses. The best example of this is that he graduated from Villanova in only three years, loading up his summers with extra classes, while still maintaining the gym and weight room work ethic it took to become a national player of the year at the collegiate level.

Brunson was a key starter on both 2018 and 2016 NCAA championship teams, ranking third in usage rate as a freshman and first as a junior. His scoring and overall game evolved efficiently each season, going from 10 points and 3 assists in 24 minutes per game in 2015-16 to 15 points and 4 assists in 31 minutes per game in 2016-17 to 19 points and 5 assists in 32 minutes per game in 2017-18.


Michelle Farsi/NBAE via Getty Images

14. Miles Bridges

Wing, 6-7, 215

Michigan State (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 72% @ 18; 52% @ 17*

NBAge: 1998 #9 (03.21.98)

Bridges is a wonderful pro prospect who could have left school last season and been a mid-first-round pick just as easily. As a sophomore, he averaged 17 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists in 31 minutes per game, while making 36 percent of his three-point, 53 percent of his two-point attempts and 85 percent of his free throws. The Spartan’s 3-and-D talents make him a good NBA fit as a wing or even a stretch 4, but it is his team-first, positive attitude that has many lotto teams intrigued by him as a man.


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15. Kevin Knox

Wing, 6-9, 215

Kentucky (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 65% @ 16

NBAge: 1999 #8 (08.11.99)

The athletic scorer has an NBA body that should transition well to the pros.

He can catch-and-shoot, create off the dribble and post up smaller defenders, all with equal aplomb. His next step in his ever-evolving game is creating shots for others.

Knox has the tools to be a good defender, but still has much to learn—on both ends of the court—to become a valuable team contributor. That said, Knox has the desire and skill set to become an NBA lifer and has the right attitude to get it done in due time.


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16. Donte DiVincenzo

Guard, 6-5, 200

Villanova (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 84% @ 15

NBAge: 1997 #15 (01.31.97)

Because DiVincenzo may be the most clutch (2018 NCAA Final Four Most Outstanding Player) and most athletic (NBA combine-leading 34.50 inches standing vertical leap and 42 inches max vertical leap) player in the draft, he sneakily is rising up the draft charts from underrated to properly rated.

What is most impressive about DiVincenzo is the rapid rise in both his per-40 stats and overall efficiency. His willingness to come off the bench at Villanova is another positive character trait that many scouts looked upon kindly.


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17. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Guard, 6-6, 180

Kentucky (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 65% @ 16

NBAge: 1998 #10 (07.12.98)

The tall point guard should be able to see over his defender on offense (8-8 standing reach) and guard wings on defense, giving him a versatility seen in recent drafts from the likes of Lonzo Ball, Dejounte Murray and Ben Simmons. And like the aforementioned, Gilgeous-Alexander does not yet have the three-point game to complement his other already-developed skills. That will have to come with time.


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18. Gary Trent Jr.

Guard, 6-6, 209

Duke (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 79% @ 16

NBAge: 1999 #9 (01.18.99)

Unlike Trae Young, who creates most of his own three-point shots, Trent is well versed in coming off screens like, say, a Klay Thompson, running defenses ragged with the three-point threat he poses at all times.

At Duke, Trent made 40 percent of his college three-pointers, shooting 6.5 per game, which translated to 56 percent of his overall shots.

He is not the type of 2 guard who will get to the line 10 times per game. But if you need a 3-and-D threat to keep defenses honest, Trent is your man.


Sam Forencich/NBAE/Getty Images

19. Troy Brown

Guard, 6-7, 215

Oregon (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 46% @ 14

NBAge: 1999 #10 (07.28.99)

Brown’s 2017-18 season may not have been as stellar as some of his fellow first-round prospects (he averaged 11 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists in 31 minutes per game), but he ranks high on this list because of two things: 1. Brown’s work ethic and desire to succeed is strong; 2. Brown filled a void on a rebuilding Oregon team coming off a Final Four season, playing with such maturity last season as an 18-year-old, do-it-all freshman wing.


20. Mo Wagner

Big, 6-11, 245

Michigan (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 67% @ 16; 61% @ 17*

NBAge: 1997 #16 (04.26.97)

Wagner prides himself on his stretch 4 and 5 capabilities, perhaps already establishing himself as the best pure shooter when it comes to the big positions. In his three seasons at Michigan, the Germany product made 64 percent of his two-point attempts and 39 percent of his three-pointers for good measure. As he matures and gets stronger, his weakness at rebounding is no longer a weakness.


21. Robert Williams III

Big, 6-10, 241

Texas A&M (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 47% @ 16; 39% @ 18*

NBAge: 1997 #17 (10.17.97)

Defense comes first for Williams and that is likely a by-product of going against fellow draft prospect and A&M alum Tyler Davis on a daily basis in practice. If Williams can translate his potential to the NBA hardwood, Williams could become the best draft center outside of the top 10 pick. Though he is still raw, Williams could one day become a good starting big. As a sophomore, he averaged 10 points, 9 rebounds and 3 blocks in 26 minutes per game.


22. Gary Clark

Big, 6-8, 225

Cincinnati (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 64% @ 16

NBAge: 1994 #20 (11.16.94)

Clark could wind up as the oldest player selected in the first round of the 2018 NBA Draft, but that does not mean he is an ancient relic with no upside. Au contraire, Clark may have enough game his rookie season to show why he belongs to be mentioned with current pros as fellow birth class of 1994 mates Pascal Siakam and Jarell Martin. At Cincinnati, Clark averaged 15 points and 7 rebounds and showed impressive three-point range (39 percent) on 4.1 attempts per game.


Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images

23. Omari Spellman

Big, 6-9, 245

Villanova (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 84% @ 15

NBAge: 1997 n/r (07.21.97)

Spellman may very well be one of four Villanova players drafted from their 2018 NCAA championship team. And it is his championship pedigree as a stretch 4 or 5 big that makes him appealing at this part in the draft, especially to the championship contenders who feel they are one player away from contending.

In Spellman, NBA teams get a ready-made pro who came into head coach Jay Wright’s program as a freshman and delivered 11 points, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks per game, while making 43 percent of his 3.8 three-point attempts.


24. Bonzie Colson

Wing, 6-6, 224

Notre Dame (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 38% @ 16; 65% @ 19*

NBAge: 1996 #20 (01.12.96)

Bonzie is not afraid to mix it up in the paint, establishing himself as a 20-point, 10-rebound man in his senior season at Notre Dame, while also getting dirty on D with 2 steals and 2 blocks per game.

That skill set will serve him well in a P.J. Tucker sort of way, but he still will have to deliver as a three-point marksman if he wants to earn 3-and-D money in the League (Colson only shots 137 three-point attempts in four college seasons).


Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images

25. Kevin Huerter

Guard, 6-7, 194

Maryland (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 56% @ 15

NBAge: 1998 #16 (08.27.98)

Huerter could be a good role player in the NBA, with a quickness and athleticism and basketball IQ you don’t normally find this far down the draft chart. He may lack the season-long list of accomplishments of the other guards ranked above, but he did show late-season improvement in the tough Big Ten, displaying NBA three-point range throughout while making 42 of his three-point attempts and 61 percent of his two-point attempts.


Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images

26. De’Anthony Melton

Guard, 6-4, 190

USC (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 48% @ 15*

NBAge: 1998 #17 (05.28.98)

After trying to get his name cleared during an NCAA investigation into improprieties at USC and other universities, the sophomore shooting guard eventually dropped out of school in January to pursue the NBA career he now has before him.

Melton had a stellar freshman season at USC in 2016-17 that showed his versatility—he was the Lonzo Ball/Markelle Fultz defensive stopper of the Pac-12—but it was not until recent offseason workouts that NBA scouts fully realized they had a first-round talent on their hands.

Melton’s 6-8 wingspan, plus offensive versatility (8 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists in 27 minutes per game as a USC freshman) make him appear worth the risk of not seeing competitive action for 15 months.


27. Isaac Bonga

Wing Guard, 6-9, 194

Fraport (BBL)

23yoProjection: 63% @ 14

NBAge: 1999 #11 (11.08.99)

Though he has a 7-0 wingspan, Bonga’s best position may be point guard. Even if he becomes a point forward of sorts, the Germany product, with parents from the Congo, has shown his versatility on the big stage this season, playing 22 minutes per game and starting 18 of 41 contests for Fraport in his home country’s BBL league.

It may take several years for the 18-year-old to develop in the NBA, but he has shown a lot of versatility already at such a young age, averaging 7 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists per game.


28. Jock Landale

Big, 6-11, 255

St. Mary’s (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 46% @ 18; 54% @ 20*

NBAge: 1995 #17 (10.25.95)

After dominating mid-major competition on the West Coast college scene for years, the 23-year-old center will see how his 21-point, 10-rebound game of efficiency translates to the League.

He has represented St. Mary’s a.k.a. Little Australia well in games against high-profile competition like Gonzaga and Arizona the past two years, faring well against such 2017-18 NBA rookies as Zach Collins and Lauri Markkanen.

If Landale can defend the pick-and-roll well enough in Summer League, he will find himself an NBA job if by chance he does not get drafted Thursday. We think he is worthy of a shot either way.


29. Mitchell Robinson

Big, 7-1, 225

Inactive

23yoProjection: n/a

NBAge: 1998 #18 (04.01.98)

Robinson scares you as a draft pick because he did not play anywhere at all last season. He last played in 2016-17 as a high school senior at Chalmette High School (La.), where he averaged 25.7 PPG and 12.6 RPG. Robinson had committed to Western Kentucky, but for reasons unknown, left the school before the basketball season started.

But if you are this deep in the draft and want to take an all-or-nothing gamble on a center who went head-to-head with the top bigs at the top of this draft, then roll the dice with Robinson. He was a McDonald’s All American and played those more accomplished bigs pretty much even-up.

The young Robinson is as athletic and talented as the lotto centers, and only lacks their résumé and college highlights.


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30. Isaac Haas

Big, 7-2, 303

Purdue (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 62% @ 16

NBAge: 1995 #18 (10.02.95)

In the old days, Haas would have a roster spot on lockdown. But nowadays, when giants are discriminated against, Haas has a tough sell in showing that he can defend the pick-and-roll guards in today’s switch-everything NBA. At Purdue, Haas showed steady scoring, rebounding and shot-blocking improvement all four seasons. That bodes well for a 22-year-old who played mistake-free ball pretty much all of last season.


31. Trevon Duval

Guard, 6-3, 186

Duke (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 79% @ 13

NBAge: 1998 #19 (08.03.98)

 

32. Lonnie Walker

Guard, 6-5, 204

Miami (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 49% @ 13

NBAge: 1998 #20 (12.14.98)

 

33. Anfernee Simons

Guard, 6-4, 177

IMG Academy

23yoProjection: n/a

NBAge: 1999 #12 (06.08.99)

 

34. Brandon McCoy

Big, 7-0, 250

UNLV (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 34% @ 16

NBAge: 1998 n/r (06.11.98)

 

35. Josh Okogie

Guard, 6-3, 211

Georgia Tech (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 33% @ 15

NBAge: 1998 n/r (09.01.98)

 

36. Vince Edwards

Wing, 6-8, 225

Purdue (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 76% @ 15

NBAge: 1996 n/r (04.06.96)

 

37. Keenan Evans

Guard, 6-3, 190

Texas Tech (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 68% @ 16

NBAge: 1996 n/r (08.23.96)

 

38. Keita Bates-Diop

Wing, 6-7, 235

Ohio State (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 64% @ 15

NBAge: 1996 n/r (01.23.96)

 

39. Tyler Davis

Big, 6-10, 256

Texas A&M (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 61% @ 16

NBAge: 1997 n/r (05.22.97)

 

40. Devon Hall

Guard, 6-5, 202

Virginia (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 73% @ 14

NBAge: 1995 n/r (07.07.95)

 

41. Landry Shamet

Guard, 6-4, 180

Wichita State (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 59% @ 14

NBAge: 1997 n/r (03.13.97)

 

42. Jevon Carter

Guard, 6-2, 205

West Virginia (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 69% @ 14

NBAge: 1995 n/r (09.14.95)

 

43. Jacob Evans

Guard, 6-5, 210

Cincinnati (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 64% @ 15

NBAge: 1997 n/r (06.18.97)

 

44. Tony Carr

Guard, 6-5, 204

Penn State (NCAA)

23yoProjection 60% @ 15

NBAge: 1997 n/a (10.11.97)

 

45. Chimezie Metu

Big, 6-11, 225

USC (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 52% @ 14; 49% @ 15*

NBAge: 1997 n/r (03.22.97)

 

46. Aaron Holiday

Guard, 6-1, 185

UCLA (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 51% @ 12; 64% @ 13*

NBAge: 1996 n/r (09.30.96)

 

47. Juwan Morgan

Wing, 6-8, 230

Indiana (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 44% @ 17

NBAge: 1997 n/r (04.17.97)

 

48. Yante Maten

Big, 6-8, 243

Georgia (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 50% @ 15

NBAge: 1996 n/r (08.14.96)

 

49. Chris Cokley

Wing, 6-8, 229

Alabama-Birmingham (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 25% @ 16

NBAge: 1996 n/r (07.27.96)

 

50. Ajdin Penava

Big, 6-9, 214

Marshall (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 28% @ 15

NBAge: 1997 n/r (03.11.97)

 

51. Jarred Vanderbilt

Wing, 6-9, 214

Kentucky (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 16% @ 15

NBAge: 1999 #13 (04.03.99)

 

52. Rodions Kurucs

Wing, 6-9, 220

FC Barcelona (Euroleague, ACB)

23yoProjection: 37% @ 11; 49% @ 14*

NBAge: 1998 n/r (02.05.98)

 

53. Allonzo Trier

Guard, 6-5, 205

Arizona (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 38% @ 12; 34% @ 14*

NBAge: 1996 n/r (01.17.96)

 

54. Chandler Hutchison

Wing, 6-7, 197

Boise State (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 44% @ 14

NBAge: 1996 n/r (04.26.96)

 

55. Ray Spaulding

Big, 6-11, 215

Louisville (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 57% @ 13

NBAge: 1996 n/r (03.11.96)

 

56. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk

Wing, 6-8, 205

Kansas (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 75% @ 12; 78% @ 13*

NBAge: 1997 n/r (06.10.97)

 

57. Isaiah Wilkins

Wing, 6-7, 227

Virginia (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 69% @ 13

NBAge:1995 n/r (09.23.95)

 

58. Elie Okobo

Guard, 6-2, 180

Pau Orthez (Eurocup; French LNB Pro A)

23yoProjection: 67% @ 13

NBAge: 1997 n/r (10.23.97)

 

59. Grayson Allen

Guard, 6-5, 205

Duke (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 79% @ 11; 74% @ 13*

NBAge: 1995 n/r (10.08.96)

 

60. Khryi Thomas

Guard, 6-3, 210

Creighton (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 61% @ 12

NBAge 1996 n/r (05.08.96)

 

61. Malik Pope

Big, 6-10, 220

San Diego State (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 41% @ 13

NBAge1996 n/r (07.25.96)

 

62. Jerome Robinson

Guard, 6-6, 191

Boston College (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 45% @ 12

NBAge: 1997 n/r (02.02.97)

 

63. Peyton Aldridge

Wing, 6-8, 225

Davidson (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 44% @ 12

NBAge: 1995 n/r (11.10.95)

 

64. Bruce Brown

Guard, 6-5, 202

Miami (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 34% @ 8; 52% @ 13*

NBAge: 1996 n/r (10.02.98)

 

65. Arnoldas Kulbolka

Wing, 6-9, 209

Orlando (Lega Basket Serie A)

23yoProjection: 70% @ 7; 56% @ 13*

NBAge: 1998 n/r (01.04.98)

 

66. Kerem Kanter

Big, 6-10, 245

Xavier (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 39% @ 13

NBAge: 1995 n/r (04.20.95)

 

67. Shake Milton

Guard, 6-5, 205

SMU (NCAA)

23yoProjection: 33% @ 13

NBAge: 1996 n/r (09.26.96)

 

68. Rob Gray

Guard, 6-1, 185

Houston (NCAA)

23yoProjection 56% @ 12

NBAge: 1994 n/a (04.03.94)

 

69. Justin Tillman

Big, 6-8, 220

Virginia Commonwealth (NCAA)

23yoProjection:: 30% @ 12

NBAge: 1996 n/r (02.02.96)

 

KEY: 23yoProjection 23-year-old SUPERGLOOO projection and percentage likelihood projection is met, with projections based on college/international stats; NBAge birth class rankings (see below); * denotes statistics from 2016-17 season; # denotes 23yoProjection from another league in 2017-18 season; x denotes statistics from 2016-17 season one year after he was drafted; n/a stats not available or did not meet 500-minute minimum; n/r not ranked in top 20 of NBAge class ranks.

 

 BIRTH CLASS OF 1999  NBA SUPERGLOOO (Total)  NBA 23YO PROJECTION
 1. Luka Doncic  n/a  100% @ 24; 95% @ 23
 2. Wendell Carter  n/a  77% @ 23
 3. Marvin Bagley  n/a   77% @ 24
 4. Jaren Jackson  n/a  55% @ 22
 5. Zhaire Smith  n/a  69% @ 21
 6. Dzanan Musa  n/a  80% @ 20
 7. Collin Sexton  n/a  55% @ 18
 8. Kevin Knox  n/a  65% @ 16
 9. Gary Trent  n/a  79% @ 16
 10. Troy Brown  n/a  46% @ 14
 11. Isaac Bonga  n/a  63% @ 14
 12. Anfernee Simons  n/a  n/a
 13. Jarred Vanderbilt  n/a  n/a

 

 BIRTH CLASS OF 1998  NBA SUPERGLOOO (Total)  23YO NBA PROJECTION
 1. Jayson Tatum BOS  20.73 (1053)  72% @ 18
 2. Deandre Ayton   n/a  58% @ 23
 3. Jarrett Allen BKN  15.40 (462)  55% @ 15
 4. Trae Young  n/a  59% @ 20
 5. Mo Bamba  n/a  53% @ 19
 6. Frank Ntilikina NYK  6.25 (222)  70% @ 13
 7. Markelle Fultz PHI  n/a (65)  28% @ 18
 8. Michael Porter  n/a  n/a
 9. Miles Bridges  n/a  72% @ 18; 52% @ 17*
10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander  n/a  65% @ 16
 11. Terrance Ferguson OKC  1.73 (27)  32% @ 4
 12. Ike Anigbogu IND  n/a (14)  26% @ 14
 13. Malik Monk CHA  0.55 (10)  78% @ 20
 14. Tony Bradley UTA  n/a (6)  45% @ 20
 15. Isaiah Hartenstein HOU  n/a  37% @ 19; 68% @ 18#
 16. Kevin Huerter  n/a  56% @ 16
 17. De’Anthony Melton  n/a  48% @ 15*
 18. Mitchell Robinson  n/a  n/a
 19. Trevon Duval  n/a  73% @ 13
 20. Lonnie Walker  n/a  47% @ 13

 

 BIRTH CLASS OF 1997  NBA SUPERGLOOO (Total)  23YO NBA PROJECTION
 1. Jamal Murray DEN  19.70 (1053)  69% @ 19
 2. John Collins ATL  14.53 (540)  51% @ 24
 3. O.G. Anunoby TOR  16.45 (508)  23% @ 15
 4. Brandon Ingram LAL  11.45 (471)  69% @ 19
 5. Lonzo Ball LAL  12.35 (458)  68% @ 19
 6. Bam Adebayo MIA  15.68 (447)  78% @ 18
 7. Lauri Markkanen CHI  10.10 (425)  64% @ 19
 8. Dennis Smith DAL  6.50 (277)  40% @ 15
 9. Marquese Chriss PHX  6.53 (208)  42% @ 17
 10. Zach Collins POR  8.53 (186)  50% @ 24
 11. De’Aaron Fox SAC  4.55 (186)  78% @ 19
 12. Derrick Jones MIA  15.70 (178)*  23% @ 15
 13. Josh Jackson PHX  3.95 (161)  80% @ 18
 14. Ivica Zubac LAL  10.93 (139)  33% @ 15; 29% @ 19*
 15. Donte DiVincenzo   n/a  84% @ 15
 16. Mo Wagner  n/a  67% @ 16; 62% @ 17*
 17. Robert Williams  n/a  47% @ 16; 39% @ 18*
 18. Thon Maker MIL  5.40 (139)  n/a
 19. Ivan Rabb MEM  10.60 (114)  48% @ 15; 57% @ 19*
 20. Ante Zizic CLE  n/a (108)  83% @ 22; 95% @ 21x

 

 BIRTH CLASS OF 1996  NBA SUPERGLOOO (Total)  23YO NBA PROJECTION
 1. Ben Simmons PHI  25.15 (1431)  45% @ 19
 2. Donovan Mitchell UTA  21.93 (1205)  75% @ 16
 3. Myles Turner IND  21.95 (1162)*  46% @ 19
 4. Jaylen Brown BOS  19.55 (876)  54% @ 13
 5. Devin Booker PHX  13.23 (752)  71% @ 20
 6. Dejounte Murray SAS  19.55 (710)  50% @ 12
 7. Domantas Sabonis IND  17.90 (675)  58% @ 21
 8. Tyus Jones MIN  18.75 (573)  80% @ 19
 9. Justise Winslow MIA  13.48 (472)  80% @ 20
 10. Luke Kennard DET  15.15 (462)  75% @ 17
 11. Mikal Bridges  n/a  84% @ 18; 77% @ 16*
 12. Jalen Brunson  n/a  84% @ 17
 13. Dillon Brooks MEM  13.23 (752)  62% @ 16
 14. D’Angelo Russell BKN  9.30 (351)*  67% @ 21
 15. Kevon Looney GSW  17.95 (340)  52% @ 17
 16. Stanley Johnson DET  8.63 (340)  75% @ 20
 17. Skal Labissiere SAC  12.78 (330)  39% @ 12
 18. Deyonta Davis MEM  12.63 (248)  47% @ 18
 19. Tyler Ulis PHX  9.60 (225)*  69% @ 18
 20. Bonzie Colson   n/a  38% @ 16; 65% @ 19*

 

 BIRTH CLASS OF 1995  NBA SUPERGLOOO (Total)  23YO NBA PROJECTION
 1. Karl-Anthony Towns MIN  31.38 (1907)  72% @ 25
 2. Nikola Jokic DEN  29.35 (1494)  67% @ 16
 3. Andrew Wiggins MIN  16.95 (1076)  71% @ 18
 4. Kristaps Porzingis NYK  16.40 (739)*  80% @ 15
 5. Aaron Gordon ORL  15.35 (735)*  75% @ 20
 6. Jakob Poeltl TOR  22.13 (702)  61% @ 21
 7. Bobby Portis CHI  20.18 (691)  55% @ 20
 8. Kyle Kuzma LAL  12.60 (630)  43% @ 14
 9. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson BKN  15.15 (606)  75% @ 18
 10. Jabari Parker MIL  16.30 (587)*  68% @ 22
 11. Trey Lyles DEN  17.43 (505)  72% @ 18
 12. Kelly Oubre WAS  9.38 (436)  51% @ 17
 13. Jordan Bell GSW  25.75 (434)  70% @ 15
 14. Zach LaVine CHI  11.78 (429)*  58% @ 13
 15. Mario Hezonja ORL  9.85 (340)  95% @ 14
 16. Jason Hart LAL  10.85 (330)  77% @ 18
 17. Jock Landale  n/a  46% @ 18; 54% @ 20*
 18. Isaac Haas   n/a   62% @ 16
 19. Isaiah Whitehead BKN  7.80 (267)  58% @ 12
 20. Noah Vonleh CHI  8.65 (228)*  39% @ 19

KEY: SUPERGLOOO (our metric combining Player Efficiency Rating with On and On-Off plus-minus ratings); SUPERGLOOO Total for the season; 23yo Projection 23-year-old SUPERGLOOO projection and percentage likelihood projection is met with projections based on college/international stats; * denotes statistics from 2016-17 season; # denotes 23yo Projection from another league in 2017-18 season; x denotes statistics from 2016-17 season one year after he was drafted; n/a stats not available or did not meet 500-minute minimum; n/r not ranked in top 20 of NBAge class ranks; players in boldface are in 2018 NBA Draft.